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Gold looks pretty attractive for investors |
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Thursday, January 30 2003 @ 12:01 AM EST
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TIME to buy gold, or is it too late? The remarkable rise in the gold price - by nearly US$100 an ounce or more than one-third since the bull market began last year - may suggest that the fun is already over.
Those who believe that the current rally is due mainly to fears of an Iraq war do subscribe to this view. But there is much more behind what is happening to the gold price than immediately meets the eye and investors could still profit handsomely by acquainting themselves with the facts.
A continued run-up from the current level of around US$368 an ounce to US$400 is predicted by many while others say the rally could stretch to US$500. While no one has predicted gold will hit US$800 an ounce, as it did in 1980 after the second oil shock, some analysts say the potential for further appreciation is virtually open-ended.
The best analyses of where gold is headed come not from gold bugs or gold miners but from more agnostic sources. One with good credentials in this respect is David Hale, chief economist at the Zurich Group, who is known for the objectivity of his analysis. Mr Hale has recently produced a report entitled Why is the gold price rallying? in which he concludes that 'many of the pre-conditions now exist for a sustained gold price rally' and that 'the price could easily shoot into the US$400-500 per ounce range'.
The reasons: The former White House economic adviser looks beyond the Iraq situation at the factors that have propelled gold higher and which are likely to continue doing so. These include what appears to be a fundamental change in the attitude of central banks towards the metal, and their need to employ it in their battle against deflation; a continuing loss of faith and slide in the value of the US dollar, and the fact that many Arab nations appear to be diversifying out of US dollar and into gold.
Central banks own around 32,345 tonnes of gold or some 22 per cent of the world supply, according to Mr Hale, and their behaviour is a 'crucial factor' influencing its price.
Rest of the article.
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| Authored by: Anonymous on Tuesday, February 04 2003 @ 02:15 PM EST |
Let us get back just 5 years..1998 and 99 when investors worldwide invested in stocks of software. Stocks went high and high promising return to investors more than 300 times. From USA to Hongkong, Europe India surplus investments were sucked up by software stocks and then came the inevitable in 2001 onwards when stocks of software companies nosedived but by this time software industry had collected billions from individual investors...Now on GOLD I had indicated an year back that Gold prices will go up...they are not going up for Iraq war and now it is also the turn of governments to rush for gold. Individual investors as well as governments will spend billions of rupees to buy Gold from International market as it goes up and all the currencies in the world are convertible to US dollars. Governments will buy 100s of tons of gold and spend billions and then prices will come down nose diving...and by this time countries would have lost their currency against US dollars in the world market. Dollar will stablize and it will benefit US Economy at the cost of loss of many of the countries who will get into the trap laid down very carefully...
Ashok Sharma agrostar@sify.com
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| Authored by: Anonymous on Wednesday, February 05 2003 @ 10:11 AM EST |
| Here's an interesting chart of the percentage of foreign reserves held in gold bullion, held by various countries.
Gold Reserves [ Reply to This ]
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